Rapid assessment of the transmission potential of an emerging or reemerging pathogen is a cornerstone of public health response. A simple approach is shown for using the number of disease introductions and secondary cases to determine whether the upper bound of the reproduction number exceeds the critical value of one.
Blumberg S, Lu P, Lietman TM, Porco TC. Assessing the plausibility of supercritical transmission for an emerging or re-emerging pathogen. medRxiv. Published online January 1, 2021:2020.02.08.20021311. doi:10.1101/2020.02.08.20021311